Nigeria, Africa's most populous country and largest economy, held its long-awaited presidential election on Saturday, the continent's largest democratic exercise. But four days later, there is still no winner, and losing candidates are already calling for a rerun. Let's try to make sense of the election-night drama. So far, this is what we know. With three-quarters of Nigeria's 36 states declared, ruling party candidate Bola Tinubu leads opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar. Nonetheless, third-party insurgent candidate Peter Obi won both Lagos, the largest city, and Abuja, the capital. Nonetheless, Tinubu is on track to win both the popular vote and at least 25% of the votes cast in two-thirds of the states plus Abuja. (The constitution included this provision to ensure that Following their walkout from the polling place on Monday night, the two main opposition parties demanded on Tuesday that the electoral commission annul the partial count and redo the election because the outcome had been "manipulated" by results sheets being posted online. What's taking so long? It takes time to manually compile results from nearly 180,000 polling stations across the country. Inadequate internet access also makes it difficult to upload results. Furthermore, a widespread cash shortage caused by a botched government plan to replace high-denomination notes resulted in many Nigerians having to wait hours to vote or being unable to travel to polling places. What we don't understand. First, consider the turnout. Overall it seems lower than in 2019, but Amaka Supporters of the defeated candidates have already demonstrated in Lagos and Abuja. Whether or not the protests turn into widespread unrest will be determined largely by what the president-elect and other politicians say and do in the coming days and weeks.
Finally, what does this all mean for public trust in elections? "Low trust in Nigerian democracy is based on the state's inability to deliver" things like public services or security, according to Anku. That explains why satisfaction has plummeted from 84% in 2000 to 21% in 2022. Nonetheless, while the process may appear sloppy now, it has greatly improved. For example, having a competitive third-party candidate like Obi "is significant." "This would never happen.
